ACUS11 KWNS 280155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280155
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern IL into far northern IN and
central Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 280155Z - 280330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated instance of severe hail may occur during the
mature stage of the sparse storms in progress. The severe threat
will be isolated, precluding a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...A few widely spaced multicells/transient supercells
have become established within a strong 925-850 mb warm-air
advection regime, where substantial MUCAPE and 60+ kts of effective
bulk shear remains in place. The current expectation is for these
storms to fluctuate in intensity for a few more hours, potentially
producing a few marginally severe hailstones in the process.
Nonetheless, the severe threat will remain sparse, so a WW issuance
is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-pXGwjFTQTrwQakNaV_gdalhh5I1eiq2p0sTjs0E-I46E0q1wNUpxnpeHShidP813dZoqX5w0PVjPRP7TttsCx7a3_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 42248896 42298855 42078803 41738765 41618742 41648682
42008633 43578561 44458510 44668479 44688438 44478397
44038362 43428367 42818391 42258445 41758511 41438597
41238673 41178729 41218831 42248896

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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