ACUS11 KWNS 280103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280102
NEZ000-KSZ000-280230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE into northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 280102Z - 280230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts and isolated hail remain possible
through dusk.

DISCUSSION...Strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this
evening from west-central NE into northwest KS, in advance of a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across the central
High Plains. Very rich low-level moisture is in place across the
region, with the 0-1 km mean mixing ratio of 19.8 on the 00Z LBF
sounding very near an all-time record for the site (per SPC's
sounding climatology). This moisture is resulting in strong to
extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-5000 J/kg), despite rather warm
temperatures aloft. Effective shear of 30-40 kt is sufficient for at
least modest storm organization, with organized multicells and
perhaps a supercell or two possible through dusk. Large PW and
relatively favorable lapse rates will continue to support strong to
locally severe gusts, and isolated hail cannot be ruled out with the
strongest cells.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5jWBfb8gNAs4FJ6C1oHTA2muvascdfcovVFX-h4dGKDPWt5E-U45i8ryjsjo9STR0_ywFPmJufAqf8MvdMnlUJYTkh8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 39240103 41520057 42780091 42970071 42980003 42729973
41279885 40069859 39449885 39189983 39150031 39130072
39240103

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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