ACUS11 KWNS 271942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271941
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1768
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271941Z - 272145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across parts of the central High
Plains appears probable in the coming hours. Deep boundary-layer
mixing coupled with ample buoyancy will likely yield a few
strong/severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts. Trends
will be monitored for the need for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and regional radars show gradual
deepening of cumulus and shallow convective showers/weak
thunderstorms across far eastern CO into adjacent portions of
northwest KS and southwest NE. This activity appears to largely be
driven by very weak ascent along and north of a stalled baroclinic
zone and ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance. Residual capping is
slowly eroding across the region as temperatures breach 100 F. As
temperatures continue to warm, thunderstorm coverage and intensity
may increase, though confidence on overall storm coverage is limited
given the weak forcing for ascent. Regardless, thunderstorms that
can develop will likely mature within a thermodynamic environment
featuring MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg and deep
boundary-layer mixing up to 2-3 km, which should favor robust
updrafts and accelerating downdrafts. Consequently, strong to severe
winds will be possible, and modest deep-layer wind shear may support
some storm organization and the potential for loosely organized
clusters. Limited confidence on thunderstorm coverage casts
uncertainty on the need for watch issuance, but trends will continue
to be monitored.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5TnPRX1_JxUxOo4vAxkGn7zaX8GFzA0G3xUWfxhBcgiHvTqJ10hdmoPPPeq3Zp6Y1KkfSZMTwjy4IlFemNhvSvr93ik$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39210087 38890243 39090288 39440318 39940301 40540186
40730121 40810067 40450013 40079985 39789984 39609998
39370031 39210087

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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