ACUS11 KWNS 271717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271716
WIZ000-271845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...east-central WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

Valid 271716Z - 271845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail and tornado potential may persist the next
1-2 hours as a cell near Winnebago and Calumet counties continues
southeast.

DISCUSSION...A supercell over far northeast Winnebago and Calumet
counties likely produced a damaging tornado recently based on strong
rotation and TDS from KGRB radar. The downstream airmass remains
very unstable with effective layer STP approaching 4 to 6 in a
corridor southeast of ongoing storms. Given steep lapse rates,
favorable thermodynamics and strong effective shear greater than 50
kt supporting continued supercell structures, a risk for very large
hail up to 2.5 inches and a continued risk of strong tornadoes may
continue for another 1-2 hours.

..Leitman.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7kyI_vGVj2dXZ5i3ycCPHXhhk3pN5FkQL0JhL7_nnMA18h32eLtyXksGwCqrZSXA4Amrxj9lieybl_tPjjPxG8y3ev4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON 44028760 43758746 43498751 43438780 43528823 43998868
44308875 44358815 44348807 44298798 44028760

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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