ACUS11 KWNS 262026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262026
SDZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Areas affected...northern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262026Z - 262200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible with storms across
northern Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed off the higher terrain of the
Tetons, Big Horns, and Black Hills this afternoon. Additional storms
are expected within these zones this afternoon. The environment is
not that unstable (~250 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC HRRR-Based
Mesoanalysis), but a very deeply mixed environment (per 18Z RIW and
UNR VWP) will support some wind threat. In addition, 50+ knots of
flow above 300mb should provide ample shear for some storm
organization, despite the weak instability. Therefore, isolated
severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon/evening, but no watch
is expected given the weak instability.

..Bentley/Leitman.. 07/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6RMQ0se5vL2Chl5m_hxtXyLhlOMKs2V9iIbjbUO3ev7NKNGlvNkSYoal5v129_C-_4qprw-25MyGz6ujVYNuLKKlGug$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44690961 45010611 44520327 43170347 43140524 43460861
43660928 44070978 44690961

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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