ACUS11 KWNS 170702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170702
TXZ000-170800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau of TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 170702Z - 170800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The environment within a mesoscale area may continue to
support a couple of weak supercells during the overnight. A brief
tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...KDFX radar imagery at 0700 UTC shows several distinct
updrafts within a southwest to northeast-oriented thunderstorm
cluster (i.e., evident via echo top imagery). A stationary
mid-level low over the Permian Basin will promote a persistent and
unchanging flow regime across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
through tonight. KDFX VAD data has shown some modest enhancement to
easterly to southerly flow within the surface to 2 km layer during
the past 3 hours (i.e., strengthening of 5-10 kt). Furthermore, the
presence of a very moist boundary layer (lower to mid 70s F surface
dewpoints) and adequate buoyancy may combine with the enlarged
low-level hodographs to support intermittent supercell structures
for the next several hours. Accompanying this episodic
intensification of a couple of storms into supercells, a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Will continue to monitor mesoscale
trends.

..Smith.. 07/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7-fUwp65JF3NSOAmX-mgxujsnKcvIWQYvNtIDbG3GXa_TTpT0G06RNQfGSiXbhOv_QKI30UJBFhtkicuP-0S0K8e-Nw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29920076 30340064 30929953 30849913 30619902 30299906
29610047 29650069 29920076

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH


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