ACUS11 KWNS 170225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170225
NDZ000-170400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...north-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...

Valid 170225Z - 170400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and a brief tornado or two
continues across western portions of the watch area.

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15Z, volumetric radar data indicates a
supercell over southern Benson County moving at 325/20 kt. The storm
has remained anchored to a boundary that extends to the
south-southwest with a recent tornado report near Maddock. Latest
objective analysis indicates 0-3-km CAPE as high as 150-175 J/kg
along the boundary, and while low-level shear is not overly strong,
the storm-boundary interaction will support a continued risk for a
brief tornado or two for the next 1-2 hours.

Despite echo tops approaching 65 kft at times, large hail has
remained limited. However, given the persistent supercell
structures, at least marginally severe hail will remain a threat.

..Mead.. 07/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-rZc_IyUM6e-q4Z9GEqmcwAJAbhwMsaOY304d3WBwWgR-xb8SMTsaFbfZqIx5UfhTbgBf0HTFFcRrKS6DJUHG6kFjdM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47909996 48229997 48529960 48389878 47809862 47569874
47499960 47909996

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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