ACUS11 KWNS 170037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170037
NDZ000-170230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...north-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...

Valid 170037Z - 170230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for a brief tornado or two will exist for the
next couple of hours with large hail and severe wind gusts remaining
the primary hazards.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 to 45 minutes, several storm mergers
have occurred in Rolette County, leading to large updrafts
exhibiting some supercell characteristics. Both radar data and
mesoanalysis indicate the ongoing storms colocated with a
north-northeast to south-southwest oriented boundary, and in the
vicinity of a more northwest to southeast oriented outflow boundary.
Ambient vorticity associated with those boundaries coincides with
sizable 0-3-km CAPE, suggesting the potential for rapid updraft
accelerations in the lower part of the storms. As such, the
potential for a brief tornado or two may increase for the next
couple of hours, before diminishing thereafter. Otherwise, the
predominant hazards will be large hail and severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-hyp6pQuLWDQ64l1pZyB0tdt9LBZso8uA5webhZVKVm9QorSZPjr34C5-2iNv-TyXC_1nFjgLDd4Ao-6e-q2J00pJwI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48360045 49080045 49249999 49149884 49069818 48489783
47959802 47779919 48050002 48360045

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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