ACUS11 KWNS 162355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162354
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-170200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...Idaho Panhandle into northwest Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 162354Z - 170200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible with ongoing storms this evening. The limited areal
extent of the threat is expected to preclude a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms exhibiting splits and radar-identified
three-body scatter spikes are ongoing as of 2345Z over portions of
Lewis and Idaho Counties in ID into Sanders and Lincoln Counties in
northwest MT. The trailing influence of a shortwave trough lifting
into southern Alberta is likely contributing to this development
amidst a steep lapse rate and moderately unstable environment.
Objective analysis indicates the region resides within a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow to the east of an upper low off the WA and
OR coasts with 45-55 kt of effective bulk shear. That environment
will remain supportive of high-based supercells with the primary
hazard being large hail. Locally severe wind gusts will also be
possible owing to strong evaporational cooling potential in the
sub-cloud layer.

..Mead/Hart.. 07/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-9qXnRgm9lGFPAuYpaFzDjVcLMCfMoqYjEf18fEOfLHS2bSd7AE-M8zh7ScXePDtH05bGtIY77DWoUBJIpdWrQszSCU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 45841665 47021664 48201604 48761506 48581402 47601411
46411489 45611560 45491627 45841665

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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