ACUS11 KWNS 162211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162211
NDZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...north-central and northeast North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 162211Z - 170015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated occurrences of large hail
and severe wind gusts is expected to increase this evening.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts a deepening cumulus
field across portions of Bottineau and McHenry Counties in the
vicinity of a subtle meso-low triple point. Latest deterministic and time-lagged CAM guidance suggests that storm initiation will become increasingly likely by 00Z (7 PM CDT) as the remaining convective
inhibition is eroded by continued heating and low-level convergence.
An additional storm or two is possible farther south on a surface
trough/weak front south of Bismarck.

In the absence of appreciable large-scale forcing for ascent, it
remains unclear what the eventual areal coverage of storms will be. Nonetheless, latest objective analyses suggest that the local
environment features moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE as
high as 3000-3500 J/kg. When coupled with a vertically veering wind
profile with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, the setup appears
favorable for some organized storm modes, including supercells
initially with a subsequent transition to a cold-pool driven
convective system. The primary hazards in that scenario would be
large hail and severe wind gusts. Forecast storm motions for a
right-moving supercell suggest that residence time along an existing
outflow boundary in the area will remain limited, which is expected
to preclude a more robust tornado threat.

As mentioned above, eventual storm coverage remains uncertain, which
will dictate the need for a watch. If it becomes apparent that
multiple severe storms will develop, a severe thunderstorm watch may
be considered.

..Mead/Hart.. 07/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4SeByoDs9K06xnb6pBqMs2kKCt2od2rnDVTsm28CqkbWwxYc_ovx7q26vPg_G_0Q7ZSQE-lpQIKxg2RuIgIAO9aCK78$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48210088 48900059 48979945 48989794 48519760 47689774
47229800 47129918 47080049 47460094 48210088

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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