ACUS11 KWNS 160319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160319
TXZ000-160545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 160319Z - 160545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado or two is expected to
increase overnight. The brief nature of the threat will likely
preclude a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Increased forcing for ascent attendant to a vorticity
lobe shifting east out of Mexico along with strengthening warm
advection and moisture flux along a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) is
expected to foster an increase in thunderstorm coverage overnight
across the discussion area. That scenario has already begun as of
03Z with isolated storms developing from southwest through northwest
of the San Antonio metro area, including some supercell structures.

While the primary hazard will be excessive rainfall, a modest
increase in low-level shear along the LLJ may yield some updraft
rotation and an attendant brief tornado threat.

..Mead/Guyer.. 07/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8lT9I8Lg-vzJVdDU1OsPa8q2u4AVAhPbTxCee0YXQZXWAIACvq3zKT1TKGa1o7DAYUcUVp57IleoXjId0_6FVh_W8yw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28650022 29260035 29729985 30169869 29759822 29239809
28859839 28679919 28439989 28650022

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH


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