ACUS11 KWNS 152223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152223
TXZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...south-central Texas...including the San Antonio
metro area

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152223Z - 160030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized brief tornado threat may evolve this evening
in the San Antonio metro area. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection/isentropic ascent to the north
of an outflow boundary situated to the immediate south of the San
Antonio metro area is fostering recurring shower and thunderstorm
development with some weak rotation evident in radar data. The
current KEWX VWP, located to the north of the boundary, exhibits
pronounced veering of winds through the lowest 1 km AGL with
estimated SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 through that layer.

The air mass to the immediate north of the outflow boundary is quite
moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, which are largely
contributing to MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. However, given the
cooler boundary-layer temperatures, low-level lapse rates are
relatively weak, which may limit parcel accelerations in the lower
part of the storms. Nonetheless, the presence of modest low-level
shear and a moist/low LCL environment indicates some potential for a
brief tornado this evening. Given the localized and brief nature of
the tornado threat, a watch is not currently expected.

..Mead/Guyer.. 07/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_tThF1iVQAEOJI5Xwe8HYlUDsJeynHbTRhhwsYU_f8X3tWtu5pZ1fwA9N067HGW-qioMoeHXB4F2N5Yjua-v06LycDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON 29199881 29559898 29849871 29929831 29879790 29769764
29439757 29139771 28929827 29199881

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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