ACUS11 KWNS 150657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150656
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-150830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...northern NY...southern VT...southern NH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...490...

Valid 150656Z - 150830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489, 490
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and
damaging gusts (55 to 70 mph) will likely move southeast into
southern parts of VT/NH over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 0655 UTC shows a couple of severe
thunderstorms moving southeast along a remnant baroclinic zone
draped across New England. Surface temperatures have been slow to
cool with upper 70s to lower 80s F being maintained beneath
thunderstorm anvil cloud canopy. Ample mid to high-level flow
increasing with height on area WSR-88Ds VADs (75-kt at 8km MSL) will
continue to support storm venting and promote a cellular storm mode.
Although MUCAPE has decreased into the overnight, around 2000 J/kg
is indicated by HRRR-based objective analysis. As a result,
episodic intensification of storms will probably continue with
supercellular structure. Isolated large hail and damaging gusts
will be the primary threats with this activity over the next few
hours as it shifts southeastward into southern parts of VT/NH.

..Smith.. 07/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LhBXNleeydSGnL3_Nod9Sz-hOJpX0E2gE3eJp1ZJ5vRfR6DAsd08Ohmj_i1h8dmjjVSAoFlmDaSTm7qsE30Yi3mifE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 42677097 42677146 42757197 43847448 44217454 44397436
44437398 43167080 42817080 42677097

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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