ACUS11 KWNS 150424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150423
MTZ000-150600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...east-central MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488...

Valid 150423Z - 150600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered to widespread severe gusts (60-80 mph) will
likely continue with an eastward-moving linear cluster for the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar-mosaic and IR composite imagery show a mature
linear cluster with 50-kft echo tops over Petroleum into Yellowstone
counties moving east. Surface observations indicate temperatures
are still warm and in the 80s F with lower to mid 60s F dewpoints
over Garfield into northern Rosebud counties in eastern MT.
HRRR-based objective analysis implies MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg over
eastern MT with an easterly 40-kt 850-mb LLJ maintaining a moist
fetch into the area immediately east of the linear cluster. Given
the strengthening low-level flow with height veering to weaker
southwesterly flow in the midlevels (yielding 50-kt effective
shear), the resultant wind profile will continue to strongly promote
a linear storm mode. Severe gusts will be the primary severe
hazard, but there may be a localized threat for large hail occurring intermittently with southern flanking updrafts as this complex moves
east during the early overnight.

..Smith.. 07/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TWZdj_aJ5579NZa2a3H0j3kqXvrkXC27xnOP1EqMaMpnRogPeU63_7aFWAL5L-VoRbqzzcxHWAVu1JO3G984GGM1us$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46040845 46400828 46820835 47200852 47410790 47360666
47030617 46560611 46020626 45860692 45880810 46040845

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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