ACUS11 KWNS 150220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150220
MTZ000-150315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488...

Valid 150220Z - 150315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts will continue with multicellular convection
over the next few hours, especially if upscale growth continues. 75+
mph gusts will be possible near the strongest storm cores.

DISCUSSION...Supercells have begun to merge over the past hour or
so, resulting in multiple severe gusts, including a measured 86 mph
per the KMVH AWOS. These storms continue to propagate eastward atop
a well-mixed boundary layer, where ample evaporative cooling
potential exists (i.e. 85-95 F surface temperatures and 1500+ J/kg
DCAPE per 02Z mesoanalysis). Therefore, severe gusts will remain a
concern for at least a few more hours, especially if ongoing storms
can grow upscale further into a better defined MCS. Given the degree
of evaporative cooling potential, 75+ mph gusts are still possible, particularly with the stronger storm cores.

..Squitieri.. 07/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9zZ-BEgNA3i0IFPj--Ep1Gg6-ipP7E624EeVE0RF7xXSkQnNcGCWVZXOHLaqWJXYMTXh30Y6hLYJfJrIB_-juW05FFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46400853 46300933 46510970 46880971 47310922 47600830
47740776 47800621 47660560 47190541 46920584 46580743
46400853

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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