ACUS11 KWNS 150212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150211
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-150345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern New York into Vermont and New
Hampshire

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...

Valid 150211Z - 150345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues over WW489. Additional
supercells and organized clusters moving out of eastern Ontario will
support a continued severe risk into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Across WW489, a cluster of severe storms has organized
over portions of northern NH over the last couple of hours. These
storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging gusts, hail and
perhaps a tornado this evening as they move east/southeastward along
a diffuse baroclinic zone in southern New England.

Additional, more robust, convection was also noted in eastern ON
this evening. The environment ahead of these severe storms remains
strongly unstable (MUCAPE 3000+ J/kg) and sheared. High-res imagery
from Canadian radars shows a mixed storm mode of supercells and
organized clusters, which is likely to continue as they approach and
cross the international border between 0300 and 0400 UTC. Given the
favorable environment and storm mode, a continued risk for mainly
hail and damaging winds is expected late this evening into the
overnight hours. Though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..Lyons.. 07/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!41ruGJ3hCORTBghc863Qhiw-uJEWr7SJGGoMBUw-7V575LTYoayCbe_J2T9TJMdPGOtVRfF4HgTnrBFB3qwdUQwy2yg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON 44487608 45367446 45147266 44427040 43877018 43467039
43217069 43127117 43257247 43437322 43687421 44067530
44487608

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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