ACUS11 KWNS 150043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150042
MTZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488...

Valid 150042Z - 150145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail will exist with supercells in the
short term. However, if upscale growth can occur, then a
concentrated severe wind threat may develop in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Several multicells and supercells have developed over
the past couple of hours, with MRMS MESH depicting hail potentially
exceeding 2 inches in diameter with some of the stronger supercells.
Given well over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of effective bulk
shear preceding the storms, both severe wind and hail should remain
a concern for the next several hours, especially if supercell
structures persist. However, storms may merge and grow upscale.
Should this occur, an elongated corridor of strong buoyancy and
shear precedes the storms across the remainder of central and
eastern MT. If the MCS leading line orients more north to south,
becoming perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vectors, an organized
swath of 50+ kt winds may occur. 75+ mph gusts cannot be ruled out
given 8-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and well over 1500 J/kg
DCAPE (indicating efficient evaporative cooling potential).

..Squitieri.. 07/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9cX2DJ0IiT0xKfqC6QVAr2XCCazRjWauS2IbrrDazJIkm-0MHAcNBtGHY-XU3hZoQzCDhTWaIINZUdQTZ7gZegrYtl4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 47621216 48361059 48830879 48950728 48620612 47830566
47070624 46470768 46130914 45920998 45861045 45891092
47621216

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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