ACUS11 KWNS 142223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142222
MTZ000-142345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142222Z - 142345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should develop over the next few
hours, posing a severe gust threat. A WW issuance may be needed
pending greater storm coverage.

DISCUSSION...Hints at convective initiation (via the detection of
lightning with NLDN data) are underway along the eastern fringe of a
cloud shield overspreading the northern Rockies in association with
a 500 mb wind maximum grazing central MT. Here, surface temperatures
are approaching 95 F amid mid 50s to lower 60s F surface dewpoints,
yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 30+ F surface temperature/dewpoint
spreads are in place, with RAP forecast soundings showing an
appreciably mixed boundary layer extending up to at least 700 mb. As
such, if the mixing boundary layer can support the initiation of
additional storms over the next few hours, evaporative cooling
potential should be sufficient to support severe gusts with the
heavier storm cores. An instance or two of severe hail also cannot
be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed
if/when greater storm coverage becomes clearer.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7AybLJWMTBC9s9aTfdbTJpveDO3nzIvEAg0Xl3HIebxWVYogPqpLQV0vgKmwNea7_Ph6Cmau9bSnRLsOO-Ps-JhQ64k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46091177 47001101 47641022 48130872 48250737 48170675
47750636 47000670 46340787 45720877 45500930 45410989
45331073 46091177

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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