ACUS11 KWNS 141821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141820
FLZ000-141945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...central parts of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141820Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible through the
afternoon hours with the stronger wet downbursts. The severe threat
should be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have increased in coverage over
the last 1-2 hours given strong surface heating (i.e. surface
temperatures exceeding 90 F, with convective temperatures being
breached). As the boundary layer continues to mix/deepen through the
afternoon, additional storms should develop. MLCAPE should exceed
2000 J/kg on a widespread basis, supporting wet downbursts for the
stronger thunderstorms. Given PWATs approaching 2 inches, enough
momentum from water loaded downdrafts may be generated to support a
couple of damaging gusts. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be
very sparse, precluding a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Q12SvB9dRf1NR83CiNDytfnslTeXhkF8Lo8X9RILakGrwmrroqdC8MlipkMmCM8wsjKdzp-hpAJkcCiVWZCI_nBqgY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 26898206 28338206 28878193 29198165 29178130 28878096
27658032 27038020 26468038 26218063 26288128 26618179
26898206

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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