ACUS11 KWNS 141816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141815
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...parts of western Maine...northern New Hampshire
and Vermont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141815Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development appears increasingly
probable across the St. Lawrence Valley through the western New
England international border vicinity by 4-6 PM EDT. These may be
accompanied by large hail and potential to produce tornadoes, in
addition to damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A mesoscale convective vortex has progressed across the international border and will continue east-south east of the
Greenville ME vicinity toward Downeast coastal areas this afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity near the vortex has been steadily
dissipating for several hours now, but renewed thunderstorm
development persists along (and to the cool side of) an associated
outflow boundary trailing west-northwestward across southwestern
Quebec.

Some of this upstream activity has shown recent signs of
intensification, mainly near and to the west of the St. Lawrence
Valley, where inflow may be emanating from a moist boundary-layer
with surface dew points near 70F. Still mostly beneath a plume of
warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, this air appears
characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.

Through 20-22Z, model output suggests that the elevated mixed-layer
plume will slowly become suppressed southward across southern Quebec
through the international border vicinity. As it does, there
appears increasing potential for scattered thunderstorms to continue intensifying along and, perhaps, across the outflow boundary,
becoming increasingly rooted in the unstable boundary-layer. In the
presence of strong deep-layer shear, a few supercell structures may
evolve, accompanied by a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts
and potential for a tornado or two while spreading into and across
the international border vicinity.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7OhmwldgLxKnsRP1043GOL4cKMVSdm9mCZDJRPb0pgas4TuOfGrup5lwe_28TFiGhXTmlwIDGOIIQzGBgqwSI60X71E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 46007068 45476945 44846913 44367070 45877459 47037437
47087288 46007068

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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