ACUS11 KWNS 121950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121949
AZZ000-122145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Areas affected...southern/central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121949Z - 122145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are expected this
afternoon into this evening across parts of southern/central
Arizona. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery
across parts of southeast AZ, with ongoing thunderstorms further
north along the Mogollon Rim as of 1945 UTC. Steep midlevel lapse
rates and abundant midlevel moisture are supporting MLCAPE values up
to around 1000 J/kg. Continued destabilization is expected over the
next few hours and additional thunderstorm development is expected
over higher terrain. Midlevel easterly flow around 20-30 kts will
support convection moving off the higher terrain and across the
lower deserts through evening. Organized clusters may produce
isolated strong to severe gusts to 80 mph. A severe thunderstorm
watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_opokEjeVMcDGCTKFgSQYi7LhbJs1SXCyfsHhWJ7Qi_2uEWMBPD5lHYVWPPoCWXgYitZ_HG7aE8QI9KM7tJPKgSrLWU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 34421234 33821111 33231018 32270975 31730979 30910988
31081108 31271234 32341312 33201350 34221351 34521292
34421234

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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