ACUS11 KWNS 121750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121750
MIZ000-WIZ000-121945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121750Z - 121945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms will spread across portions of
the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern parts of Lake Michigan
over the next few hours. Isolated large hail and gusty winds are
possible with this activity, though watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorms have been showing some
intensification over Lake Superior as they approach central portions
of the U.P. This activity is occurring within an area of enhanced
effective shear focused mainly north of the international border.
Objective analysis indicates weak capping persists across the
region. However, a weak to moderate MUCAPE gradient is oriented
across the U.P. and will support continued southward storm
development. Vertical shear weakens with southward extent so
stronger/better organized convection may be short-lived, with storms
gradually weakening as they shift southward across central portions
of the U.P. before dissipating near northern Lake Michigan. Given
isolated coverage and small spatial extent of the overall severe
risk, a watch is not currently expected.

..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6HK7N6ItSI-Kq_IN7QWcDmMSkYOySN6fDLR9i6xcg-8wDmxkf1ev9LuyXW-0Yuwq-0BYNBx6jCsz9i0ifQjdl2nx3wY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 47588653 46608551 45778573 45318654 45538710 45998741
46588754 47298738 47448715 47548675 47588653

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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