ACUS11 KWNS 121724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121724
SCZ000-GAZ000-121930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Georgia into much of South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121724Z - 121930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next 1-2
hours across portions of Georgia and South Carolina, bringing a
threat for damaging wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may
eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...A hot, humid air mass remains in place across much of
the Southeast, with temperatures noted to have already warmed into
the low/mid 90s across portions of eastern Georgia and
southern/central South Carolina as of 1720 UTC. Visible satellite
imagery depicts increasingly agitated cumulus across the region,
with developing thunderstorms noted south and east of the Atlanta
Metro. Continued heating of this air mass will promote further
destabilization through the afternoon to around 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and increasing convective coverage over the next couple of
hours. Weak deep-layer flow and effective shear suggest a relatively disorganized, outflow-dominant storm mode, but steepening low-level
lapse rates and PW content near 2 inches will facilitate a risk for
damaging wind gusts (with gusts up to around 60 mph possible) across
the region. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to cover this
potential within the next 1-2 hours.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ILIturix_Fjr_R5Tu3LB0uP4TqUiK_2kj6e0tB0a5IvxL5VOz0145V8a4BgfQYzhc3_dzY9o2MRtMftDZTmGvzb7XU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31108148 31208198 31558281 32228339 33018366 33218367
33718370 34098354 34338330 34488288 34648187 34578083
34308014 33917962 33567927 33227913 33087918 32577979
32128051 31768094 31188117 31108148

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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