ACUS11 KWNS 121712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121712
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Areas affected...northeast TX vicinity into northern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121712Z - 121915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through
the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts are possible, though severe
potential is expected to remain limited.

DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass characterized by 70s F dewpoints
is in place across the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon. Strong
heating of this very moist airmass along a west to east oriented
surface boundary is supporting moderate instability as of midday.
Thunderstorms are already developing along this boundary, and on the
southern periphery of a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima.
Vertical shear will remain weak today, limiting a more organized
severe risk. However, steepening low-level lapse rates through the
afternoon in conjunction with water laden downdrafts, could support
sporadic wet microbursts, with a few stronger gusts possible. A
severe thunderstorm watch appears unlikely at this time.

..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4roMF5JL5WX4lO1Y2tlpdz5oa5chZc72fSbiEYY_ywxKTOnq7qn0VbLGxmwA9IGKNdoFAULXeijuwduX0TI5fdfilNE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34149707 33849510 33149259 32639155 32239147 31769188
31489324 31489507 31929657 32309732 32919764 33569765
33869761 34149707

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)