ACUS11 KWNS 121700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121700
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-121900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of North Florida and the Florida Panhandle
into southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121700Z - 121900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance or
two of small hail will be possible over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the Gulf
Coast sea breeze from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida amid
a hot and humid air mass, with a couple of gusts measured in the
40-45 mph range over the past 1-2 hours. Temperatures near 90 F and
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s are already supporting 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE, with further destabilization expected through peak heating
this afternoon. Coupled with high PW (greater than 2 inches) and
steepening low-level lapse rates, an isolated risk for water-loaded
downbursts, damaging wind gusts (with localized gusts to 65 mph
possible), and perhaps an instance or two of small hail should
materialize across the region. Weak effective shear and deep
layer-flow will temper overall convective intensity and
organization. Thus, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7rwp4nXyM14Nt9mf0uKmpvIviMS1hg-xvkQTljvSn04pgoBY3xpUz4bplUNZb1tDSzVbzjbasUTJ9EJ5qRuXuY8VgAg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30528654 30638694 30848714 31148709 31568668 31778581
31678470 31288317 30858213 30528168 30228136 29838111
29518091 29118076 28828072 28528094 28338128 28228167
28228197 28298217 28428230 28698254 28918284 29198312
29588346 29968402 29998425 29878444 29718466 29558488
29548531 29708548 29968570 30208601 30528654

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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