ACUS11 KWNS 112342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112342
OKZ000-120145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Areas affected...parts of Northern and Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483...

Valid 112342Z - 120145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind gusts is expected to
persist this evening. However, the potential for organized cold pool development remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Mainly pulse-type storm modes have been observed over
the past 1-2 hours with recurring initiation focused along colliding storm-scale outflows and the western extension of a synoptic front
analyzed across northern OK. Latest objective analysis indicates
that the strongest instability (MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg) is
located over northeast OK in the vicinity of the stalled front,
where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Both boundary-layer moisture
content and resultant instability decrease with westward extent;
however, low-level lapse rates become steeper.

Regional VWPs indicate deep-layer shear of generally less than 30 kt
across the area, which should tend to limit the potential for
organized storm modes. As such, the currently observed pulse storms
are expected to continue this evening with an associated risk for
locally severe wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail.
The potential for an organized cold pool capable of more
concentrated severe wind gusts will be contingent on the favorable
clustering of storms, which has yet to become apparent.

..Mead.. 07/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-MuXxsMGoEfCQiFZvzC-PNFiqhyv0SPqWDvFo523XNviVSVAZFPNYir7KfZuBmgPxADvgydDxsbCNsCAYScq-wAJJT8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35249929 35599927 36059849 36769800 36869661 36779580
36409532 35979540 35479600 35139680 34849795 35249929

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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