ACUS11 KWNS 112126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112125
AZZ000-112330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 112125Z - 112330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts is expected to increase
across the discussion area late this afternoon through evening. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery indicate deepening
cumulus and early thunderstorm development along the Gila and White
Mountains within the southern periphery of an upper high located
over UT and CO. The air mass across the lower elevations of southern
Arizona is hot and somewhat moist with steep low/mid-level lapse
rates yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Latest short-term model
guidance indicates the developing storms will increase in coverage
and intensity over the next 2-3 hours while spreading southwest into
southeast and south-central AZ within an increasingly unstable
environment.

The current KEMX VWP is sampling a belt of enhanced easterly winds
in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which, combined with the steep low-level
lapse rates, will support the potential for cold pool organization
and a related risk for severe wind gusts.

..Mead/Thompson.. 07/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4BxbOEAu4xud0oq_0GeKOAsu_yLRQZ7RbeZKxJMHGYB2noc7HJ9rfvemRxeG_jCw1UEnfZEKwOZQCjMcuYZsBnIGmQc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31851197 32301195 32631149 33061074 33481000 33540965
33480942 32980916 32300916 31860920 31570955 31461027
31401094 31611177 31851197

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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