ACUS11 KWNS 111657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111657
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-111830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Areas affected...much of South Carolina into portions of southern
North Carolina and far eastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 111657Z - 111830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will evolve east-southeastward
through this afternoon and evening, bringing a threat for damaging
wind gusts to portions of the Carolina Piedmont and Coastal Plain.

DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent from a remnant MCV embedded
within deep-layer westerly flow (around 30 kts of westerly mid-level
flow sampled by the CLT TDWR VAD) currently analyzed across the
central Appalachians, widely scattered convection has developed from
eastern Georgia into central/northwestern South Carolina as of 1655
UTC. Expectation is for this convection to develop into one or more
clusters before progressing east-southeastward toward the Atlantic
Coast through this evening. Ahead of these storms, temperatures have
climbed into the low-90s, with additional heating expected through
the afternoon. This will support moderate buoyancy of 2000-2500+
J/kg MLCAPE when coupled with the moist low-level air mass
(dewpoints in the low-to-mid 70s) across the region.

While temperatures are not expected to climb as high as yesterday,
steepening low-level lapse rates, high PW (2+ inches), and modestly
stronger mid-level flow will facilitate a risk for damaging wind
gusts (largely within the 45-55 mph range but locally 55-65 mph).
The greatest severe potential is expected to develop across portions
of central South Carolina, where the best overlap of conditions
favorable for damaging wind gusts should exist. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to cover this potential within the
next 1-2 hours.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9nJMRbmpKgBqCGWbmoYT2RKjSM88UpelE7xm1_kPBX_hSdQIQnc7f3U8EPvJP8QWAtdkYZOxPR8ZyLHnO65tQkhaX1E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 33878306 34038318 34448312 34748298 34818298 35098260
35248200 35248116 35228002 35157959 35007908 34797878
34497847 34197829 33917838 33737855 33287899 33017937
32887974 32828020 33008091 33298165 33658251 33828295
33878306

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)