ACUS11 KWNS 110402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110401
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-110600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeast MO...southern IL/IN...western KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480...

Valid 110401Z - 110600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into the
early overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this
evening from southeast MO into southern IL. Much of the convection
across southern IL has become undercut by outflow, though large PW
and moderate buoyancy may still support a threat of localized
downbursts. There may be some potential for intensification of
convection as the composite outflow moves eastward into a very moist environment across western KY. This may result in some wind-damage
threat spreading east of WW 480, though weaker deep-layer shear with
eastward extent should tend to limit the magnitude of any severe
potential.

Farther west, elevated convection developing near and just north of
a surface boundary across southwest MO may eventually develop or
spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO overnight. Modest
deep-layer flow/shear should tend to limit storm organization,
though localized downbursts and perhaps isolated hail could
accompany the strongest storms within this regime.

..Dean.. 07/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LzV1oXpAZoAsbRAnBySraDu4ohldXtD-HyVRRPL6sDUOZQ3p7PA0s70zHCorwgS-4iG0zmL7pdjyDNGL0Jsx7ei8G8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 36668969 36699018 36789144 36949177 37869185 38109178
38299001 38198884 37968770 37928708 37928639 37828617
37268595 36698598 36708739 36668969

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)