ACUS11 KWNS 102146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102146
ILZ000-MOZ000-102345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Areas affected...Central/southern MO into southern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 102146Z - 102345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible
into early evening. Watch issuance is possible, though timing is
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...To the south of a storm cluster moving across northern
MO, rich low-level moisture and pockets of strong heating have
resulted in substantial destabilization, with MLCAPE rising into the
2000-3000 J/kg range. Ascent attendant to a midlevel shortwave
trough moving across IA/northern MO and modest low-level warm
advection are expected to result in a general storm-coverage
increase into this evening across central/southern MO into southern
IL. However, details remain rather uncertain, due to the presence of substantial cloud cover over parts of southern MO. While storm
development is possible anywhere within this corridor, there may be
a tendency for initiation along the trailing outflow from the
northern MO cluster, as well as along the periphery of the southern
MO cloud deck.

Deep-layer shear becomes increasingly modest with southward extent,
but some increase in 850-700 mb southwesterly flow (already noted in
the KSGF VWP) may allow for development of one or more
forward-propagating clusters with a threat of damaging wind and
isolated hail. Eventual watch issuance is possible for parts of this
region, though timing remains uncertain.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9TZvWsyuSI2-DOI14Nn246PKOA66MQIH7En9jCdVZTV3iIWprDVbdc2WndeCZfdGFl0KE_BZvCRvwkKZdObfbjYKamQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 36839054 36739121 36529235 37009249 37559275 38089414
38509448 38629450 38729394 39089095 39499001 39498896
39298862 38848857 38198848 37318921 36839054

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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