ACUS11 KWNS 102057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102056
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-102300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Dakota into western
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102056Z - 102300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing along the SD/MN border
may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a remnant surface
boundary extending northwest-southeast across northeastern South
Dakota and southwestern Minnesota. Isolated, ongoing thunderstorm
development is noted along this boundary within a bullseye of
locally greater buoyancy (2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE per latest
mesoanalysis). With only weak to modest effective shear (20-25 kts)
and mid-level lapse rates less than 7 C/km, convective organization
and intensity are likely to remain limited overall. Nevertheless,
steep low-level lapse rates and the aforementioned moderate to
strong instability may support an isolated risk for damaging wind
gusts and large hail (with perhaps an instance to 1.5" in diameter
with the strongest cores). Watch issuance is not anticipated at this
time owing to the expectation for the severe risk to remain limited
in magnitude and coverage.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_MVtEj68Q6a0n6ILvVWtLUyesqq1ctRkuFeWLhVE-z9oluEZTArF9cpjB-dLJSS2CQU0usU_nTjoJREHFHVt3MOK-I4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45899757 46089736 46119707 45919660 45669617 45299579
44939566 44549570 44149577 43889597 43659617 43499652
43519702 43749756 44269794 44679796 45229787 45519775
45899757

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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