ACUS11 KWNS 102049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102048
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Areas affected...southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 102048Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and spread southeast
through evening, producing severe gusts or isolated hail.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating persists from the TX Panhandle into
eastern CO, while southeast surface winds maintain 50s F dewpoints.
Modest westerlies aloft combined with the backed low-level winds are
resulting in 30-35 kt effective shear, with overall steep low to
midlevel lapse rates. Notably, 300 mb temperatures are relatively
warm, reducing CAPE somewhat.

Storms are already forming along the Front Range and into northeast
NM, and this trend will continue with scattered cells and clusters
expected through evening. Some cells may briefly produce hail,
though damaging gusts appear to be the primary threat as boundary
layer lapse rates are steep. Storms may make it into the OK and TX
Panhandles this evening, where southerly 850 mb winds of 35 kt will
be favorable for inflow.

..Jewell.. 07/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-T8vTikEEEw3o-1xrnAjG1drioJ4pmJzWMQixVChKt6NUuqFoewQbXGlsQN6TsfzFKjYiq0D1mwoxXwrGFawLj3tfDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37920217 37540179 37220172 36640166 35890176 35400224
35420313 35710449 36040495 36800485 38180497 38840519
39120503 39210469 38990396 38670294 37920217

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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