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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1576

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 10 19:52:52 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 101952
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101952
    FLZ000-102145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1576
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

    Areas affected...portions of South/Central Florida and the Florida
    Gulf Coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 101952Z - 102145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms progressing northeastward along the Gulf
    Coast of the southern/central Florida Peninsula will bring a risk
    for damaging wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating of a moist low-level air mass (dewpoints
    at or above 70 F across southwest Florida) has resulted in strong
    instability developing across the region (MLCAPE of 3000-3500+
    indicated by latest objective analysis). While deep-layer flow and
    effective shear remain weak, this strong instability coupled with
    steep low-level lapse rates and high PW (around 2 inches) will
    promote the potential for water-loaded downbursts capable of
    occasional damaging wind gusts (and perhaps a localized severe gust)
    as convection evolves northeastward along the southwestern periphery
    of an expansive Bermuda High. Given the expectation for the severe
    risk to remain limited in spatial extent and severity, watch
    issuance is not expected.

    ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/10/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!---2WsXw78am4kpwjCGA-oXHcso8kgHYrBLslFnNOWUGpefvYAMo_CC7LAAwQcvTrJQY6YZimQpQ-3Mf27fxyv0N8jc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27688151 26888083 26768076 26648089 26528115 26298144
    25988168 25888177 25998199 26498228 26898250 27238270
    27418279 27568283 27838292 28008288 28208281 28278264
    28268242 28178208 28018188 27688151

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)