ACUS11 KWNS 100413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100412
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-100545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast MO into extreme southern
IL/southwest KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

Valid 100412Z - 100545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may continue into the early
morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Earlier convection has generally become disorganized
across southeast MO, though some uptick in storm intensity has been
noted near the southern and eastern periphery of the ongoing
cluster. Rich low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and a modest
increase in low-level flow (noted on the KSGF and KPAH VWPs) will
continue to support deep convection into the early overnight hours
across the region. However, marginal deep-layer shear and the
complex/messy storm mode may temper the organized severe threat with
time. Until a more definitive weakening trend occurs, localized wind
damage and perhaps marginal hail will remain possible. Additional
watch issuance is not currently anticipated, though local extension
of WW 477 may be considered, if a notable uptick in storm
organization occurs prior to the 05 UTC expiration time.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6PmAvEu81nFCE9rGFqo2IzZGfIFbI5HGniDjJoGmJzeB39H2X5Kp8eMg7w8z122fpl8Q_dcqI3GlcpFl0UtkovxdtcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37929193 38049040 37918966 37378885 36928877 36628897
36618944 36639011 36659074 36789131 36959163 37339206
37929193

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)