ACUS11 KWNS 100207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100206
MOZ000-ARZ000-100330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Central and southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

Valid 100206Z - 100330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat within WW 477 continues until midnight CDT.
Severe storms capable of primarily damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado or two, will be possible with storms in and around the watch
area.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms in central Missouri continue
to grow in intensity and spatial coverage this evening. MLCAPE >
2000 J/kg and locally enhanced hodographs in the vicinity of diffuse
surface boundary should support continued organization of convection
and perhaps transient supercells. These storms will be capable of
primarily damaging straight-line winds, but given the curvature of
the hodograph/increased helicity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out. However, disorganized storm-mode and nocturnal stabilization of
the boundary layer suggest a tornado threat should be limited.

..Halbert.. 07/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7DIAGd508tn3P2g8WwUomleK2nGNs6_4kW6XA97IYWHCYgbYTdJX5ct_L6J7AjmCHhH2duwObnNcn5-qJ2visGdzDJ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38489355 38699292 38699168 38559113 38219064 37869035
37489027 36839051 36519088 36489163 36629233 37009326
37189364 37989369 38489355

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)