ACUS11 KWNS 100122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100120
KSZ000-NEZ000-100245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...southwest NE into western KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

Valid 100120Z - 100245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and isolated hail may continue
through mid/late evening.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS is ongoing at 0105 UTC across
eastern CO, with measured gusts of 50-70 mph observed over the last
hour. The downstream environment remains favorable for organized
convection, with MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and moderate
deep-layer shear. Some increase in MLCINH is also underway with the
onset of nocturnal cooling. As a result, the longevity and
organization of the ongoing convective line is somewhat uncertain
into mid/late evening. However, with relatively moist low-level
easterly flow and somewhat greater downstream moisture/instability
in place, maintenance of the ongoing line and an eastward
progression of the severe-wind threat (with localized 75+ mph gusts)
appears possible into mid/late evening. Isolated hail also remains
possible with any remaining semi-discrete cells. Downstream watch
issuance is possible by 9 PM CDT.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!80WvtRQgj3ilQY284Ub-EeuLj2KxcgSx9dy5EE1VpMG5Utmv5JolgiJICaGKfGmKkO_U_P0zZgSKwgjDzN_UjiDwTbM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 41010199 41030116 41050040 40849966 39829913 39259887
38949893 38259933 37709989 37630032 37590076 37630200
38010199 39060189 41010199

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)