ACUS11 KWNS 100026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100023
NDZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

Valid 100023Z - 100200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail will continue into the
evening, along with some increase in severe-wind potential. A
tornado or two is also possible.

DISCUSSION...A few semi-discrete supercells are moving southeastward
across central/northeast ND early this evening. MLCAPE of 2500-3500
J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support
supercells through the early evening, with large to locally very
large hail possible. Some southeastward acceleration has recently
been noted with this supercell cluster, which may be indicative of
an expanding cold pool. Any further upscale growth could result in
an increasing severe-wind threat as storms spread southeastward.
Also, while low-level flow is not particularly strong, modest
low-level veering (as noted in the KBIS VWP) and presence of
sustained supercell structures could also support potential for a
tornado or two.

..Dean.. 07/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6gBucRHkK_7_WjzoPKiP9wRlvk4KAGT0_uuk27PwtM7X5ydSbOqjDJ4Wc39bCG1mcro-3iyiY8dA7368R3Mm3YMBqOo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47290085 48099921 48149868 48159828 48069808 47969780
47659757 47469752 47149770 46859807 46579889 46549980
46710054 47290085

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)