ACUS11 KWNS 092351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092350
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-100115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Eastern CO into western KS and far southwest NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

Valid 092350Z - 100115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind threat may increase into this evening, in
addition to a continued isolated hail threat.

DISCUSSION...Convection across eastern CO has gradually evolved into
more of a linear mode as of 2345 UTC. Steep low-level lapse rates,
favorable low-level easterly flow, and increasing moisture/buoyancy
downstream of this convection may result in an increasing
severe-wind threat into the evening. MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg
and moderate deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized
convection, and a swath of 60-80 mph gusts will be possible if a
more organized cold pool can evolve with time. The strongest
embedded updrafts and cells ahead of or along the periphery of the
developing line will also continue to pose a threat of isolated
large hail into early evening.

..Dean.. 07/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7iVV2Q20vcqhJxC6EZ1m8ja0gOg67UrhVhr_AI06H1TWzCTZP1Fqw4-VpuoDB3eyb0sCEIQ7yZe_vZqUk-XOvpCk5Fs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40110353 40490309 40800270 40820207 40630132 40140114
39740106 38420140 38120155 37980164 37690187 37700257
37740315 38000343 38300346 38450333 38720315 38980316
39350318 40110353

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)