ACUS11 KWNS 092045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092045
NMZ000-AZZ000-092245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern
New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092045Z - 092245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the White Mountains will
progress southwestward through this evening with a threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorm development across the White Mountains of southeastern
Arizona and southwestern New Mexico amid a plume of enhanced
mid-level moisture along the eastern periphery of upper-level
ridging. Expectation is for these storms to gradually evolve south-southwestward off of the high terrain through this evening. As
this evolution occurs, weak buoyancy (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE) based
atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer (LCLs of 3.0-3.5 km AGL) will
support a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. Weak effective
shear (less than 20 kts) and deep-layer flow (less than 15-20 kts
sampled by the EMX VWP) will largely limit storm organization and
preclude a more widespread severe risk. Thus, watch issuance is not
expected.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hVB9or48R7-vXbyOmAsaJ7mV4r3-jSYcaVLPBAh1_vS1wy76BRAhCDHwiLxGw-5mi9YcUb4ljRfvjOqVFOTdkJFhEY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31180890 31190823 31320813 32010813 32590816 32910825
33230844 33430872 33590908 33650923 33660951 33500999
33231056 32651117 31851179 31521201 31441197 31191111
31151093 31180890

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)