ACUS11 KWNS 091939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091939
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-092145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1558
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 091939Z - 092145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms will evolve eastward off of the
high-terrain of southeastern Wyoming and central Colorado this
afternoon and evening, bringing a risk for damaging/severe wind
gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation and southeasterly upslope flow, ongoing thunderstorm
development across the central Rockies and Laramie Range is expected
to increase in coverage through the afternoon, with deep-layer
westerly flow aloft yielding an eastward progression of developing
convection. Steepening low-level lapse rates and dry, well-mixed
boundary layer profiles will favor efficient evaporative cooling and
an amalgamation of cold pools, with gradual upscale growth into one
or more linear clusters/segments and an increase in the threat for damaging/severe wind gusts expected into this evening. Given the
presence of a surface moisture gradient (dewpoints in the 40s to low
50s F near the Foothills increasing into the low-to-mid 60s in
western Kansas/Nebraska) and only modest effective shear of 25-30
kts, storm organization/intensification may occur relatively slowly
as storms progress eastward. Thus, while one or more Severe
Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed later this
afternoon/evening, the timing of watch issuance remains uncertain
pending the increase in storm organization and the attendant severe
risk.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 07/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ZZNzq-CNrAPWL53dleGLndHDbeB0DeuQJh2yLcPxzb5lG_Qj6drxk2auiDahcM4nJPCx5nOsGEhF2BKFPZFn5k8Ny4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39180410 40700425 42160414 42730402 42910373 42930311
42750250 42290224 41400200 39880187 38730188 37970200
37450216 37210240 37140266 37260304 38080374 39180410

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)