ACUS11 KWNS 091805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091805
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central central/northern Virginia into
southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 091805Z - 092000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible as convection continues
to intensify and move eastward this afternoon. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Convection along a stationary boundary has shown modest intensification over the last hour near the MD/PA border. Additional
convection is developing along the Blue Ridge. Sufficiently strong
westerly winds across the Ridge will eventually move convection to
the east. Furthermore, around 30 kt of effective shear will be
present allowing for stronger storm cells and linear structures.
Low-level lapse rates will continue to steepen this afternoon,
though cloud cover has been greater in the vicinity of the
Chesapeake Bay. Given the potential for one or more clusters to
evolve this afternoon, a watch is likely to address the threat for
damaging wind gusts.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8sga09yteot9dVMKYXEuvcJUN9mMI-4j43tHQ2PsWXYqEGa3IoUYbo-9fXKweaeG9yBoH1bbhsHDHCmzhkc_uiauJLw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37517807 37697831 38537820 39337755 39597685 39657547
39157505 38637508 37837554 37697569 37457634 37537764
37517807

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)