ACUS11 KWNS 090215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090215
IAZ000-090415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...Central to northeast Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...473...

Valid 090215Z - 090415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471, 473
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail will likely continue across
portions of central to northeast Iowa for the next couple of hours.
Downstream watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, the cold pool associated
with a weak convective band has continued to expand
south/southwestward. New updrafts developing on the southern and
western flanks of the cold pool have been quickly displaced into the cooler/more stable air due to the westerly mid-level flow regime.
However, a few of these updrafts have shown periodic upticks in
intensification up to near severe limits based on MRMS MESH and
vertical ice data. Further southwest, new convective development is
also noted along the outflow of an upstream decaying thunderstorm
band.

In general, this activity resides within an axis of relatively
higher MUCAPE and continues to experience the influence of weak
frontal ascent (plus more localized ascent along the outflows) and
broad-scale lift from a low-amplitude upper wave traversing the
Plains. Because of these factors, continued updraft development
appears possible over the next 1-2 hours and may continue to pose a
threat for sporadic large hail and perhaps isolated strong/severe
wind gusts.

Beyond the next couple of hours, continued nocturnal stabilization
and diminishing buoyancy with southeastward extent will likely act
to modulate updraft intensities. The net result should be a gradual
decline in thunderstorm intensity and further reduction of the
severe threat. While some severe threat may linger in the near-term
on the periphery of WW 471 and 473, downstream watch issuance is not
expected.

..Moore.. 07/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-97Yt_VYLy8cXuYgTxuSUjOnwZHYDwVwfkEWUvncl8RKQQ0H2DGuMCJUaKS-Mxg9jf-V7_vxcjf0-XdT7URsCtoJupQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42899251 42679183 42519161 42309136 42039134 41819145
41689172 41639206 41659235 41709265 41859295 42049321
42199349 42399396 42689408 42919398 43049362 43069317
42899251

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)