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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1550

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 9 00:26:14 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 090025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090025
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-090230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1550
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0725 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

    Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

    Valid 090025Z - 090230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A transition from semi-discrete supercells to a linear
    storm mode has occurred and will promote an increase in severe winds
    downstream into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, KGID and KOAX imagery has shown a
    convective mode transition from predominately
    semi-discrete/clustered supercells to a linear band. Additionally,
    convective development continues to develop west/southwestward along
    a frontal boundary, and will likely merge with the developing band
    within the next hour or so. This activity will continue to propagate
    into the best regional thermodynamic environment, which features
    MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates are near 7.5 C/km.
    This thermodynamic will favor further updraft development and cold
    pool development, especially considering adequate deep-layer bulk
    shear in place across the warm sector (the KOAX VWP continues to
    sample 0-6 km bulk shear values of around 30 knots). Consequently,
    some uptick in severe wind potential appears probable in the next
    couple of hours across eastern NE and possibly into western IA. The
    wind threat may be modulated to some degree by weak low-level winds
    sampled by the KOAX VWP, which may favor outflow-dominant
    convection. However, embedded swaths of severe winds behind the
    outflow will still be possible.

    ..Moore.. 07/09/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7VCpwm3BN8-X75b5Ga_vJLSHAtbZy7XgrysmZQOuBEBCRLp6XU1jBvcowHIqdaWM4RJLUdFUMD_uP8LQIQ0q1dmISHc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 40679823 41019828 41559760 41739717 41909582 41689541
    41309528 40989531 40729542 40499564 40419596 40279659
    40679823

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 9 00:33:38 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 090033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090033 COR
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-090230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1550
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0733 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

    Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

    Valid 090033Z - 090230Z

    CORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A transition from semi-discrete supercells to a linear
    storm mode has occurred and will promote an increase in severe winds
    downstream into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, KGID and KOAX imagery has shown a
    convective mode transition from predominately
    semi-discrete/clustered supercells to a linear band. Additionally,
    convective development continues to develop west/southwestward along
    a frontal boundary, and will likely merge with the developing band
    within the next hour or so. This activity will continue to propagate
    into the best regional thermodynamic environment, which features
    MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates are near 7.5 C/km.
    This thermodynamic environment will favor further updraft
    development and cold pool development, especially considering
    adequate deep-layer bulk shear in place across the warm sector (the
    KOAX VWP continues to sample 0-6 km bulk shear values of around 30
    knots). Consequently, some uptick in severe wind potential appears
    probable in the next couple of hours across eastern NE and possibly
    into western IA. The wind threat may be modulated to some degree by
    weak low-level winds sampled by the KOAX VWP, which may favor
    outflow-dominant convection. However, embedded swaths of severe
    winds behind the outflow will still be possible.

    ..Moore.. 07/09/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5skftq4bZuVVF_e5jNEkq8dHcqsfk8KtYE_XXDfinjr0bl4xGD9hvWb3Nh1kS5SMkyxZaY_m1-lxjjT14RE6JSmNzYM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 40679823 41019828 41559760 41739717 41909582 41689541
    41309528 40989531 40729542 40499564 40419596 40279659
    40679823

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)