ACUS11 KWNS 082321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082321
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-090115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...Western to northeast Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...473...

Valid 082321Z - 090115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471, 473
continues.

SUMMARY...Corridors of severe wind potential will likely emerge
across west-central and northeast Iowa over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The early stages of deeper cold pool development are
noted within a convective cluster in far southeast MN/northeast IA
and within an emerging band of convection to northwest of the Des
Moines area. This likely signals a transition from semi-discrete supercell/multi-cell storms into a more linear storm mode across
both regions. Downstream, temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s
with an axis of around 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE draped ahead of both
clusters, and regional VWPs hint that deep-layer wind shear values
are around 30 knots, which appears to be slightly stronger than
depicted by latest mesoanalyses. Although low-level lapse rates
downstream are not overly favorable for downdraft accelerations, the
observed radar trends and downstream environment hint that a couple
of corridors of strong to severe winds will likely emerge across
western and northeast IA over the next few hours. This scenario is
supported by recent HRRR solutions, which suggest peak wind speeds
between 60-70 mph will be possible as the clusters/lines become
better organized.

..Moore.. 07/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6M_j9Bwbjdgx-pNMxDQLxf-hD3IxAVb3NXcsWgrjm6RXzsBZX9tiXPjtl_-cHbB6VHIarRzz17RavITIUf3kV4TmCHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 43629187 43179120 42869101 42619097 42369109 42159144
41179481 41179534 41309567 41729588 42099602 42219607
42509575 42819474 43309357 43659268 43709233 43629187

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)