ACUS11 KWNS 082238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082238
NCZ000-VAZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082238Z - 090045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to develop within a mesoscale
confluence zone where buoyancy is regionally maximized. This
activity may continue to produce damaging gusts over the next couple
of hours before the onset of nocturnal cooling. Watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection ongoing across central to eastern NC has
largely exhibited pulse behavior with downbursts notable in regional
velocity imagery. However, a few wind damage reports have been noted
over the past several hours. This activity has been focused along a
mesoscale confluence zone noted in surface observations, which
coincides with a regional buoyancy maximum with MLCAPE values
estimated to be around 2000-2500 J/kg. Additionally, regional VWPs
are sampling deep-layer wind shear values on the order of 25 knots,
which is stronger than estimated by recent RAP mesoanalyses.
Consequently, there is some potential for more loosely organized and
persistent convection, which will maintain the potential for
damaging winds and perhaps sporadic hail through late evening prior
to the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9LaNlsCSU772k8H7jyAQn0hA0J47Ye5LMjtyzUtgaqMyj4mdmeSTfQ89wUIAcxbS59KwzqdMPodvP0z0zGhyMc71BOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 34347754 34367808 34807865 35347980 35658029 36168032
36498009 36627953 36627891 36517831 36007734 35697696
35317672 34947666 34707670 34527698 34487720 34347754

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)