ACUS11 KWNS 082012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082012
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-082215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska into central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082012Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds will be the primary risk with
storms that develop later this afternoon. A watch is possible
depending on convective trends in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor/visible imagery shows a zone of ascent
overspreading the mid Missouri Valley region. Though mid-level cloud
cover has had some impact on surface heating south of the surface
cold front, temperatures still have warmed into the mid 80s to low
90s F. Based on the observed 18Z OAX sounding, it likely will take
surface 90+ F surface temperatures to fully remove MLCIN. As the
cold front slowly sags southward into the evening and the low-level
jet increases, widely scattered to scattered storm development will
become more likely. Whether storms can develop earlier than most CAM
guidance suggests remains a question. There is at least some
potential for mid-level convection to root near the surface and
MLCIN erodes. Storms that do form will pose some risk of large hail
and severe winds given observed steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderately steep low-level lapse rates. Shear will be somewhat
marginal, especially with southwest extent. Convective trends will
continue to be monitored for a possible watch by late afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9LKPhpnM19QAtchH85cY1RPAJkU7JP6S9zytUG0SzOmxxoHs69s_XekagEqQLRtQWTCN12skS7NGNXxkFIzNwFx6uEw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 40839666 40729752 40899818 41229848 41589830 42029753
43049527 43129452 42889417 42249414 41499462 40929632
40839666

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)