ACUS11 KWNS 081903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081903
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 081903Z - 082100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered, high-based thunderstorms will bring a risk for
severe wind gusts (with a couple of significant gusts possible) and
isolated large hail this afternoon and evening. One or more Severe
Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery depicts scattered thunderstorm development ongoing across the high-terrain from
central Colorado northward into southeastern Wyoming. Aided by
ascent ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation, continued heating and
a modest upslope (easterly) wind component will continue to support
the development of scattered, high-based thunderstorms through the
afternoon. While moisture remains limited in the Colorado foothills
(dewpoints in the 40s per latest surface analysis), deep-layer
westerly flow will allow maturing convection to gradually interact
with increasing moisture with eastward extent, which should promote
gradual intensification with time.

Steep low-level lapse rates (9+ C/km) and deep, well-mixed boundary
layer profiles (LCLs of 2-3+ km) will promote efficient evaporative
cooling and downward momentum transport, yielding a threat for
primarily severe wind gusts (with a couple of significant wind gusts
possible). Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters/segments
is expected with time as cold pools gradually coalesce, yielding an
increasing threat for severe wind gusts into this evening. With
steep mid-level lapse rates in place, isolated large hail will also
be possible (especially with any storms that are able to remain
discrete) owing to modest strengthening of upper-level flow and
elongation of hodographs with time. This potential will be locally
greater farther to the north where better effective shear is already
noted per latest mesoanalysis. One or more Severe Thunderstorm
Watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours to cover these
threats.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 07/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4OpJy4UiAbUKY0nbboLb0O3r2BeLZN-OWsDqTnKfXAO2WuSNuxi4CtWR8hO5ep3F9mZebFz6j99MBVsDVxR5IjDwHS4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42760372 42780293 42630256 42330206 41640176 40330163
39080166 38470177 38050201 37920228 37940272 38300351
39230413 40770465 41970469 42400445 42760372

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)