ACUS11 KWNS 080154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080154
MNZ000-SDZ000-080400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota into central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

Valid 080154Z - 080400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely spread east
into central Minnesota over the next few hours. The downstream
environment should support a continued severe wind threat.
Downstream watch issuance probably be needed to address this
concern.

DISCUSSION...An elevated thunderstorm cluster migrating southeast
across the Aberdeen, SD region has begun producing severe winds at
the surface between 60-70 mph. This, coupled with a recent uptick in
lightning counts and cooling cloud-top temperatures, strongly
suggests that the cluster is utilizing the higher buoyancy in place
across the region. Based on current storm tracks and latest
mesoanalyses, this storm will continue to push into a regional
buoyancy maximum, so further intensification appears probable over
the next hour or so. Additionally, surface observations show a warm
frontal zone draped from far northeast SD into central MN that is
well aligned with the deep-layer bulk shear vector. This may act as
a foci for storm propagation through the next few hours where a
greater chance for severe wind could emerge.

New storm development south of the ongoing cluster also appears
possible over the next 1-2 hours as an outflow boundary from the
cluster collides with a meandering boundary to the south. Any storms
developing within this zone will likely also pose a threat for
severe hail and eventually severe wind if/when upscale clustering
occurs. Regardless, downstream watch issuance into central MN
appears probable in the coming hours as storms continue to spread
east.

..Moore.. 07/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Y1rcG4NmAxjDIzIyliiTP2J1j_tVT_uvgAXUHyuTvA30YvjUVoEXnG7HUw7v_WeSVopIZyBGLoB9uCj67hDNpXPhdc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44049544 44259651 44549674 44919683 45209681 45549660
45709646 45869611 45729433 45509398 45139385 44829389
44489409 44249436 44079486 44049544

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)