ACUS11 KWNS 080108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080108
SDZ000-NDZ000-WYZ000-080315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Areas affected...Far northeast Wyoming into South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

Valid 080108Z - 080315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind continues across
far northeast WY into southwest to northeast South Dakota. A gradual
uptick in thunderstorm coverage is possible in the next few hours
across central to northeast South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Although intense convection has been rather sparse
across much of WW 469 over the past couple of hours, a handful of
severe hail and wind reports have been noted across northeast WY,
and MRMS MESH estimates show a few cores capable of producing severe
hail across north-central SD.

While convection has been fairly isolated thus far, guidance
continues to suggest an uptick in thunderstorm activity is probable
in the coming hours. This will be driven by a strengthening
nocturnal jet that will augment isentropic ascent atop a boundary
draped across the state, and will likely lift most-unstable parcels
through residual inhibition to their LFCs (as suggested by the 00z
ABR RAOB). Convection along and north of the boundary will likely
pose a large hail threat given the strong deep-layer wind shear, but
some clustering and propagation along the boundary is possible and
may pose a more robust threat for severe wind.

Further west, high-based convection across northeast WY will likely
continue to propagate eastward. Further intensification of this
activity appears possible as it spreads east and south of the Black
Hills and into a slightly cooler, but more buoyant air mass where
effective bulk shear values are near 40 knots (per the 00z UNR
RAOB).

..Moore.. 07/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_IuCNFQsEuY21AX81AyYU9NwYU6tf_qDGjs4saaOzMNK_OwZnN9nuFnH9EaErsrWERggV9cc1HgKqgN4VA2bUn7PVCg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 43050363 43420417 43730444 44030468 44370468 44590430
44640342 44870156 45230087 45480046 45670000 45869918
45919858 45959776 45849736 45629722 45369709 45069727
44779777 44439852 43829957 43470042 43170161 43080236
43020300 43050363

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)