ACUS11 KWNS 071743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071742
LAZ000-TXZ000-071915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Texas into central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071742Z - 071915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gusts may occur this afternoon. The
severe threat should remain isolated overall, so a WW issuance is
not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data both show a re-intensification of a thunderstorm cluster, which is gradually
organizing into a southward-sagging MCS structure. The southwest
flank of this MCS is beginning to interact with a relatively
pristine airmass preceding a stalled outflow boundary remnant from
earlier convection. Here, surface temperatures are exceeding 90 F
amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. While
deep-layer shear is weak, the aforementioned buoyancy should support
wet downbursts capable of damaging gusts, especially with cold pool
mergers along the leading line. Given poor vertical wind shear, the
severe threat should be isolated, with a WW issuance not currently
expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Z1nPWvw8ilEr--zYZXrMzGEYgtG9eOWFqaO0CmKZVU97zy4DPWekeewJ0qUaswCCacxr92C5uaRjgx5dSxv7A3oCxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30239356 30529454 31079579 31669678 32029708 32209706
32359689 32529658 32719607 32869563 32759494 32479414
32199355 31799266 31489233 31089223 30839239 30419279
30239356

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)